Reasons for the rise in aluminum prices

The recent rise in aluminum ingot prices is attributed to several interrelated factors, including supply shortages, increased production costs, and a rebound in demand.

1. **Supply Shortages and Production Interruptions**: A significant factor driving up aluminum ingot prices is the reduction in supply. In the United States, several aluminum smelters have either reduced production or completely shut down due to high electricity prices and production costs. These shutdowns have led to lower inventory levels, creating a supply crunch in the market【6†source】【10†source】.

2. **Impact of International Trade and Tariffs**: The imposition of anti-dumping tariffs by the US on imported aluminum ingots has shifted demand towards domestically produced aluminum. This policy has exacerbated the supply shortage as the availability of cheaper imported aluminum decreased, further driving up prices. Additionally, trade disruptions, such as those through the Suez Canal, have limited the flow of aluminum from overseas markets, contributing to the supply constraints【7†source】【10†source】.

3. **Rebound in Demand**: Despite global economic uncertainties, there has been a noticeable rebound in aluminum demand, particularly from the automotive and green energy sectors. As economies recover and industrial activities pick up, the demand for aluminum has increased, putting upward pressure on prices【6†source】【8†source】.

4. **Market Optimism**: Market participants are generally optimistic about the future of aluminum prices. The expected seasonal increase in demand towards the end of the financial year and restocking activities have contributed to this bullish sentiment. Additionally, the reduction in inventories has led to tighter market conditions, supporting higher prices【8†source】【9†source】.

In summary, the rise in aluminum ingot prices is driven by a combination of supply shortages, increased production costs, shifts in international trade dynamics, and a recovery in demand. These factors collectively create a market environment where prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term.